UTA beat VAN 4–1. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev scored on the power play at 16:00 of the first, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 65%. Karel Vejmelka saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:00 | UTA | Mikhail SergachevPP from Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 14:05 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Mikhail Sergachev, JJ Peterka | 2–0 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 4:17 | VAN | Arshdeep Bains from Aatu Räty, Jonathan Lekkerimäki | 2–1 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 17:52 | UTA | Kevin Stenlund from Kailer Yamamoto, Jack McBain | 3–1 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 19:24 | UTA | John MarinoEN from Kevin Stenlund | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:45 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.80 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.22 | +0.86 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jack McBain C | 15:41 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:37 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:06 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 17:08 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:51 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:01 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 18:31 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maveric Lamoureux D | 14:39 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 16:47 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 15:19 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 12:57 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:13 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 22:54 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 14:52 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Daniil But L | 11:57 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +2.44 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arshdeep Bains L | 9:23 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 24:34 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 17:24 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 13:53 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 17:41 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 12:43 | +0.04 | +0.25 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 12:41 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 11:59 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 16:07 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 9:01 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 12:49 | −0.14 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 22:41 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.40 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 19:47 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 29:29 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 21:47 | −0.37 | +0.22 | −0.58 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 11:27 | −0.41 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 19:38 | −0.64 | +0.23 | −0.87 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 58:36 | −1.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.