CBJ beat DET 6–5 in a shootout. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Fantilli scored on the power play at 18:29 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Cam Talbot allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:55 | CBJ | Ivan Provorov from Brendan Gaunce | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:09 |  DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:18 | CBJ | Kirill MarchenkoPP from Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 7:11 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Cole Sillinger, Denton Mateychuk | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 9:08 | DET | Lucas RaymondPP from Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Patrick Kane | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 10:20 | DET | James van RiemsdykPP from Andrew Copp, Emmitt Finnie | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:50 | CBJ | Adam FantilliPP from Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan | 3–4 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 9:35 | DET | Patrick Kane from Moritz Seider, Andrew Copp | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 11:38 | DET | Alex DeBrincat unassisted | 5–4 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 18:29 | CBJ | Adam FantilliPP from Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan | 5–5 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane R | 20:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.17 | +0.57 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Lucas Raymond L | 20:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.28 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:49 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.02 | +0.53 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 26:42 | +0.43 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:47 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.10 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:02 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.26 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 16:13 | +0.13 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 28:34 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:00 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 15:40 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 12:26 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 13:46 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 10:06 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nate Danielson C | 10:36 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 13:40 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:58 | −0.32 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 12:03 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 18:25 | 2 | −0.68 | +0.12 | −0.78 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 65:00 | −2.58 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fantilli C | 22:38 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.03 | +1.60 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.20 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 14:32 | 1 | +1.33 | −0.01 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:43 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.07 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 29:27 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.03 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:05 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 7:44 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 19:54 | 3 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:35 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 21:50 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luca Del Bel Belluz C | 7:04 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 11:19 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 28:29 | 3 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 8:48 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 21:30 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 18:30 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 18:07 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.07 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 14:01 | −0.55 | −0.18 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 63:36 | −0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.