UTA beat ANA 7–0. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lawson Crouse scored at 5:59 of the first, moving UTA’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Karel Vejmelka saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:59 |  UTA | Lawson Crouse from Michael Carcone, Jack McBain | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:30 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Ian Cole | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 5:43 | UTA | Ian Cole from Maveric Lamoureux, JJ Peterka | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 14:34 | UTA | JJ Peterka from Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller | 4–0 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 1:41 | UTA | Liam O'Brien from Jack McBain, Sean Durzi | 5–0 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 10:06 | UTA | JJ PeterkaPP from Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller | 6–0 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 12:52 | UTA | Clayton Keller from JJ Peterka, Nick Schmaltz | 7–0 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 15:12 | 2 | 2 | +1.18 | +0.03 | +1.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:00 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 21:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.04 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Lawson Crouse L | 19:30 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 16:23 | 1 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.55 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:48 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 14:14 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:47 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 21:42 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 18:44 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 18:03 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 15:41 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Maveric Lamoureux D | 16:51 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil But L | 11:40 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 19:01 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 13:01 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +2.46 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Poehling C | 16:39 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:28 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 16:50 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 14:56 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:33 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 14:29 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 19:38 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 16:33 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 19:25 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:40 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 15:44 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:33 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 19:07 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 8:54 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:54 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:27 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 9:33 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 17:59 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.60 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vyacheslav Buteyets G | 20:00 | −1.50 |
| Ville Husso G | 40:00 | −1.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.