VGK beat CHI 4–3 in a shootout. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Braeden Bowman scored at 17:32 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 8% to 51%. Carter Hart saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:27 |  VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Braeden Bowman, Shea Theodore | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 1:23 | CHI | Oliver Moore from Tyler Bertuzzi, Frank Nazar | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 11:22 | CHI | Tyler Bertuzzi unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 17:19 | VGK | Ben Hutton from Mark Stone | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 4:45 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Andre Burakovsky, Ryan Greene | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 17:32 | VGK | Braeden Bowman from Shea Theodore, Ivan Barbashev | 3–3 | 8% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard C | 24:22 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.05 | +0.60 | |
| Oliver Moore C | 12:40 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.16 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 20:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.16 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:29 | +0.22 | +0.30 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 21:32 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 14:21 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 21:44 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 15:56 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 14:18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 17:59 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 20:50 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 20:57 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.12 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | |
| Louis Crevier D | 17:26 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 9:30 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 14:21 | −0.37 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 14:11 | −0.45 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:05 | −0.79 | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.49 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 22:06 | 1 | −1.09 | −0.05 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 64:53 | −0.58 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hutton D | 13:10 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.07 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 14:20 | +0.66 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 15:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.12 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.26 | +0.89 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Colton Sissons C | 10:37 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 14:19 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 25:17 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.50 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 25:27 | +0.03 | +0.30 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 7:49 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 22:12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:28 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 8:50 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 24:06 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.38 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 21:54 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 14:15 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:25 | −0.44 | −0.27 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 17:44 | −0.57 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:54 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.04 | −0.64 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 65:00 | +1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.