NYR beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vladislav Gavrikov scored at 1:09 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Casey DeSmith saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:51 |  NYR | Carson Soucy from Noah Laba, Conor Sheary | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:04 | DAL | Kyle Capobianco unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P3 9:32 | DAL | Mikko Rantanen from Wyatt Johnston | 2–1 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 17:47 | NYR | Will CuyllePP from Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin | 2–2 | 9% → 50% |
| OT 1:09 | NYR | Vladislav Gavrikov from Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Capobianco D | 12:05 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.16 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:13 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 11:48 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 1:12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 21:14 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 11:37 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 13:13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 27:11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:14 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 10:54 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 11:46 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 20:20 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 17:30 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 28:50 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 21:32 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 13:19 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 16:25 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 17:59 | −0.47 | −0.10 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:14 | +1.22 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 22:29 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.17 | +0.80 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 17:54 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.20 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 15:59 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 22:54 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.28 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Brett Berard L | 11:47 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 12:44 | +0.06 | +0.21 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Morrow D | 14:29 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 20:34 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 16:29 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 9:19 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 6:49 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 11:19 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 16:18 | −0.16 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 16:23 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 16:41 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.12 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:35 | 2 | −0.29 | +0.15 | −0.52 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 22:29 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:30 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.14 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:54 | +0.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.