TOR beat PIT 7–2. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Easton Cowan scored at 11:06 of the first, moving TOR’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Arturs Silovs allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:46 | TOR | Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:14 |  PIT | Ben KindelPP from Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 11:06 | TOR | Easton Cowan from William Nylander, Morgan Rielly | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 2:24 | TOR | Bobby McMann from Morgan Rielly, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 4:53 | TOR | Dakota Joshua from Nicolas Roy, Troy Stecher | 4–1 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 13:58 | TOR | Nicolas RoyPP from Max Domi, Bobby McMann | 5–1 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 4:37 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Kevin Hayes | 5–2 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 7:14 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Max Domi, Matthew Knies | 6–2 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 13:16 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson unassisted | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 15:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.02 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Easton Cowan R | 18:44 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 11:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:51 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 11:30 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.04 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Auston Matthews C | 19:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.49 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:10 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 23:52 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 21:36 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 10:47 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| William Nylander R | 19:17 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:40 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 15:52 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:14 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 20:17 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Mermis D | 15:10 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:34 | −0.70 | −0.01 | −0.54 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 69:38 | +0.97 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel C | 15:08 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.11 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 15:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.03 | +0.49 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Danton Heinen L | 14:45 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 20:19 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 13:27 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 13:50 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 15:07 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 15:17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 22:44 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joona Koppanen L | 13:28 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 15:20 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 13:54 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:18 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 13:03 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 18:54 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 20:24 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:25 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 52:41 | −1.67 |
| Arturs Silovs G | 50:54 | −2.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.