PIT beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kris Letang scored at 0:59 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jet Greaves allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:10 |  PIT | Sidney Crosby from Kris Letang | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:40 | CBJ | Sean Monahan from Brendan Smith, Damon Severson | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 3:51 | CBJ | Brendan GaunceSH from Miles Wood, Zach Werenski | 1–2 | 52% → 72% |
| P2 19:56 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Charlie Coyle | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 0:13 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Erik Karlsson | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 8:28 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Tommy Novak, Parker Wotherspoon | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 0:59 | PIT | Kris Letang from Tommy Novak | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:10 | 2 | +1.34 | −0.07 | +1.34 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kris Letang D | 22:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 20:07 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.08 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 16:42 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 15:19 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 19:41 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 14:14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 10:23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 11:40 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 23:14 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 18:06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:18 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joona Koppanen L | 12:24 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:57 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 12:17 | −0.17 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:16 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:46 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:13 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.30 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 68:55 | +0.21 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 26:06 | 1 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.03 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 9:59 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.03 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 19:01 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.29 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 19:13 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:30 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 19:07 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.27 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luca Pinelli C | 18:00 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:29 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:23 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 13:54 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 8:34 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 9:16 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 18:01 | −0.20 | +0.18 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 14:42 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 18:08 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 16:02 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 16:00 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 12:46 | −0.50 | −0.05 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 70:55 | −1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.