CAR beat WPG 5–1. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Martinook scored at 11:52 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 85%. Thomas Milic allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:06 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 10:41 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Gabriel Vilardi | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 11:52 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Mark Jankowski, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–2 | 52% → 85% |
| P3 12:39 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from K'Andre Miller, Andrei Svechnikov | 1–3 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 18:57 | CAR | Seth JarvisEN from Andrei Svechnikov | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:37 | CAR | Alexander Nikishin from Justin Robidas, Eric Robinson | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:00 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.13 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 11:26 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 18:18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 12:24 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 20:07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 13:10 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 12:38 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:40 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 16:59 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:58 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 10:10 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 14:46 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:38 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 21:31 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 18:00 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Salomonsson D | 19:17 | −0.35 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:15 | −0.41 | +0.07 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Milic G | 67:57 | −1.36 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:59 | 3 | +1.12 | +0.08 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:38 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.06 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:02 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.21 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 22:18 | +0.22 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 17:31 | +0.13 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:32 | +0.03 | +0.24 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 21:28 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:27 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:56 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.26 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 14:52 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 13:20 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:28 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:15 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Robidas C | 11:57 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 13:38 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:14 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 14:44 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:47 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | +0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.