STL beat OTT 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.8, STL 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matthew Kessel scored at 9:19 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 82%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:59 | STL | Oskar Sundqvist from Mathieu Joseph, Nathan Walker | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 10:11 | OTT | Shane Pinto from Nikolas Matinpalo, Michael Amadio | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 18:26 | OTT | Fabian Zetterlund from Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 2:01 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 5:33 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Brayden Schenn, Philip Broberg | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 7:31 | OTT | David Perron unassisted | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 9:19 | STL | Matthew Kessel from Dylan Holloway, Pius Suter | 3–4 | 52% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 13:32 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.07 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 10:40 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.04 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 20:50 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.29 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 13:34 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 16:30 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:37 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 27:18 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 18:34 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 16:02 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 16:17 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 17:28 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 19:58 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 11:53 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:17 | −0.24 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Hayden Hodgson R | 8:00 | −0.37 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 21:24 | −0.43 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 18:41 | −0.63 | −0.08 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:12 | 1 | −0.68 | +0.15 | −0.85 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 57:13 | −0.63 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou R | 15:37 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.02 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Kessel D | 11:58 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.09 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:09 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.05 | +0.73 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:01 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 16:07 | +0.22 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 16:01 | +0.22 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 13:44 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 20:36 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 20:21 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 12:55 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 20:33 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 24:53 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 14:14 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.17 | −0.59 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 20:53 | −0.23 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:08 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 13:09 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.48 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:11 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.10 | −0.56 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 12:57 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 69:20 | +0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.