DAL beat SEA 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 2.3, SEA 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Vladislav Kolyachonok scored at 14:16 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 49% to 86%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:52 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Alexander Petrovic, Jamie Benn | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:06 |  SEA | Brandon Montour from Shane Wright, Berkly Catton | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 6:13 | DAL | Esa Lindell from Justin Hryckowian, Tyler Seguin | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 0:18 | SEA | Vince Dunn from Jared McCann | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 14:16 | DAL | Vladislav Kolyachonok from Tyler Seguin, Kyle Capobianco | 3–2 | 49% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 12:03 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.06 | +0.93 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 18:13 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.20 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 28:16 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.25 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 29:07 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 11:54 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 11:47 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 16:36 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:03 | 2 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 13:57 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 18:17 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 13:39 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lian Bichsel D | 18:55 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:34 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 11:01 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 13:40 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 17:57 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 19:22 | −0.52 | +0.14 | −0.64 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 69:48 | +0.60 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Dunn D | 24:13 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.15 | +0.85 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 22:14 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Berkly Catton C | 13:05 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 15:01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 9:52 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 12:22 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 21:17 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 18:26 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 17:53 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 16:19 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 22:04 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 14:31 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:14 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 20:00 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 21:14 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 11:26 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:43 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 9:42 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 58:29 | −0.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.