VAN beat ANA 5–4. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 5.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Max Sasson scored at 15:58 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 49% to 88%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:49 | VAN | Linus Karlsson from Max Sasson, Marcus Pettersson | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 11:47 | VAN | Evander KanePP from Tom Willander, Filip Hronek | 2–0 | 65% → 77% |
| P2 0:09 | ANA | Jackson LaCombePP from Cutter Gauthier | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 9:04 | VAN | Conor Garland from Brock Boeser, Tom Willander | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 16:19 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Troy Terry, Olen Zellweger | 3–2 | 13% → 29% |
| P2 18:34 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Beckett Sennecke, Jackson LaCombe | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 15:58 | VAN | Max Sasson from Filip Hronek, Quinn Hughes | 4–3 | 49% → 88% |
| P3 18:08 | VAN | Drew O'ConnorEN from Elias Pettersson | 5–3 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 19:53 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Jackson LaCombe, Chris Kreider | 5–4 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Sasson C | 7:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.19 | +0.80 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Conor Garland R | 23:05 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.03 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 24:52 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Linus Karlsson C | 7:26 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Evander Kane L | 16:25 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.17 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 15:28 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:08 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arshdeep Bains L | 4:58 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 24:25 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 11:25 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 14:48 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 20:37 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 7:16 | −0.30 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 20:52 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.10 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 11:25 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 18:20 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Kampf C | 16:14 | −0.52 | +0.10 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 21:28 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.09 | −0.44 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Tolopilo G | 69:48 | +0.53 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:42 | 1 | 2 | +0.86 | +0.15 | +0.73 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mason McTavish C | 15:27 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 23:02 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 7:18 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 9:49 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 15:53 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 13:58 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:15 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 17:18 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 15:08 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 20:08 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 18:33 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:15 | −0.28 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:10 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 19:23 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 13:11 | −0.47 | −0.05 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 11:22 | −0.54 | +0.07 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 77:20 | −0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.