MTL beat UTA 4–3. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ivan Demidov scored at 4:47 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 76%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:38 | MTL | Zachary BolducPP from Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:37 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Cole Caufield, Zachary Bolduc | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 9:43 | UTA | Barrett HaytonPP from Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 11:58 | UTA | Kailer Yamamoto from Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 13:52 | UTA | Michael Carcone from Kevin Stenlund, John Marino | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 3:20 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Zachary Bolduc, Brendan Gallagher | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 4:47 | MTL | Ivan Demidov from Oliver Kapanen, Noah Dobson | 4–3 | 48% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:52 | 2 | 1 | +1.50 | −0.10 | +1.61 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Ivan Demidov R | 12:52 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.01 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 16:10 | 1 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.12 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lane Hutson D | 19:29 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.24 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Florian Xhekaj L | 8:51 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 18:23 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:28 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Engstrom D | 12:25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 14:46 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:02 | −0.12 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:08 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Davidson C | 5:23 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 24:48 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 13:38 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 18:44 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:17 | −0.33 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:01 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 17:50 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.08 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +0.61 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:19 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.10 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 11:39 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.10 | +0.50 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:08 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:48 | +0.28 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 21:34 | +0.14 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:35 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 17:18 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 21:56 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.32 | −0.58 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 15:31 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.25 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:42 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 15:10 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:22 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 18:43 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 12:40 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:42 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:59 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 23:09 | −0.33 | +0.33 | −0.69 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:05 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 68:45 | −1.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.