TOR beat CBJ 2–1 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored at 4:40 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Joseph Woll saved 3.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 13:30 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Miles Wood | 0–1 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 16:43 | TOR | Easton Cowan from William Nylander, John Tavares | 1–1 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 4:40 | TOR | William Nylander from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Matthew Knies | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Cowan R | 18:02 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 21:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.44 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Simon Benoit D | 20:45 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 12:53 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 15:09 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 8:15 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 12:57 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:38 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:53 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:24 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:33 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 25:54 | −0.27 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 12:19 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:21 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 26:25 | −0.47 | −0.29 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:24 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 19:11 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.14 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 22:34 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 74:22 | +3.30 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 29:51 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.13 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 20:03 | +0.46 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 17:39 | +0.38 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 17:50 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:29 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 16:45 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 28:29 | +0.11 | +0.31 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 15:15 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Pinelli C | 16:20 | +0.02 | +0.32 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 10:55 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 11:30 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 14:52 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 9:14 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 10:31 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 22:26 | −0.40 | +0.19 | −0.63 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:14 | −0.51 | +0.07 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 15:52 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.02 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 21:26 | −0.91 | +0.09 | −0.96 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 64:40 | +0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.