NYR beat CAR 4–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Artemi Panarin scored at 18:56 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 72%. Igor Shesterkin saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:53 | NYR | Noah Laba from Taylor Raddysh, Matthew Robertson | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 5:04 |  CAR | Shayne GostisbeherePP from Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 18:56 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Adam Fox, J.T. Miller | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 0:45 | NYR | Vincent Trocheck from Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad | 3–1 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 10:53 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho | 3–2 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 18:17 | NYR | Will CuylleEN unassisted | 4–2 | 92% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Laba C | 13:41 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.12 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:31 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.16 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.78 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Adam Fox D | 23:08 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 11:50 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 8:46 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 19:14 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 27:07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 17:26 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:49 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 9:23 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 11:56 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 19:00 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 18:00 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:24 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:59 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 15:08 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Berard L | 11:05 | −0.67 | +0.06 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +1.83 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 21:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.09 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:10 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.09 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:46 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Walker D | 23:21 | +0.16 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Robidas C | 9:25 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 15:19 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 13:08 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 15:32 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:08 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:04 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:31 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 14:21 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:18 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:22 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:48 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:23 | 2 | −0.39 | +0.15 | −0.53 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:31 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.52 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 18:29 | −0.65 | +0.04 | −0.69 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 77:08 | −1.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.