PIT beat BUF 4–2. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 1.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bryan Rust scored at 7:51 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:09 |  PIT | Mathew Dumba unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 7:20 |  BUF | Jason Zucker from Jack Quinn, Ryan McLeod | 1–1 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 7:51 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Ryan Shea | 1–2 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 12:34 | PIT | Kevin Hayes from Erik Karlsson, Parker Wotherspoon | 1–3 | 85% → 97% |
| P3 15:42 | BUF | Jack Quinn from Jason Zucker, Mattias Samuelsson | 2–3 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 19:02 | PIT | Connor DewarEN from Danton Heinen, Ryan Shea | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn R | 18:39 | 1 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.49 | +0.66 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jason Zucker L | 18:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.45 | +0.34 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:01 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:06 | +0.21 | +0.51 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 11:39 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:34 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:44 | +0.04 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Owen Power D | 19:25 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:44 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 15:22 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 27:47 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.27 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:33 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 20:13 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:40 | −0.14 | +0.22 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 16:02 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 16:09 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 13:27 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 14:06 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 69:05 | −1.45 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Dumba D | 16:16 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.08 | +0.90 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 16:26 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.06 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:23 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.06 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 15:25 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 11:33 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 13:53 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:46 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 22:37 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:48 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:46 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joona Koppanen L | 13:02 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:46 | −0.21 | −0.32 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Tristan Broz C | 11:30 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:37 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 19:10 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 17:13 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 14:59 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 20:50 | −0.64 | −0.40 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | +0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.