PHI beat FLA 4–2. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tyson Foerster scored at 19:14 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:21 |  FLA | Brad Marchand from Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 5:16 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:57 | PHI | Emil Andrae from Jamie Drysdale, Owen Tippett | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 11:13 | PHI | Matvei Michkov from Emil Andrae, Jamie Drysdale | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 19:14 | PHI | Tyson Foerster from Travis Sanheim, Cam York | 3–2 | 49% → 96% |
| P3 19:35 | PHI | Sean Couturier from Christian Dvorak | 4–2 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.09 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 18:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.08 | +0.91 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Matvei Michkov R | 12:13 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.17 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 13:30 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.23 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:48 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:08 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 10:59 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:03 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:11 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rodrigo Abols C | 11:56 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 13:20 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 16:40 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:43 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 18:00 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:33 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 15:42 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.18 | −0.50 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 17:46 | −0.41 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 12:51 | −0.43 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 60:00 | +0.45 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 17:25 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.18 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.14 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Devine R | 9:08 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:58 | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 13:06 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 14:15 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 8:37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:43 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:38 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 17:08 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 18:11 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:58 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 9:17 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 21:55 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 16:02 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 14:44 | −0.25 | +0.18 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 16:55 | −0.36 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | −2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.