DAL beat EDM 8–3. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jamie Benn scored at 3:48 of the first, moving DAL’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Stuart Skinner allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:48 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Wyatt Johnston, Sam Steel | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:51 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 15:24 | DAL | Nathan Bastian from Radek Faksa, Colin Blackwell | 3–0 | 79% → 91% |
| P1 18:46 | DAL | Sam Steel from Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston | 4–0 | 92% → 99% |
| P2 4:39 |  EDM | Connor Clattenburg from Ty Emberson, Mattias Janmark | 4–1 | 1% → 6% |
| P2 14:01 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Tyler Seguin, Wyatt Johnston | 5–1 | 98% → 99% |
| P2 15:36 | DAL | Wyatt JohnstonPP from Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin | 6–1 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 1:23 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Vasily Podkolzin, Leon Draisaitl | 6–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 8:21 | DAL | Justin Hryckowian from Mavrik Bourque, Vladislav Kolyachonok | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 9:31 | EDM | Jack Roslovic from Connor McDavid, Matt Savoie | 7–3 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 15:39 | DAL | Nathan Bastian from Radek Faksa | 8–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Bastian R | 13:17 | 2 | +1.35 | +0.01 | +1.56 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Hryckowian C | 13:11 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.01 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 16:25 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Sam Steel C | 15:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.59 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Jason Robertson L | 16:57 | 1 | 2 | +0.46 | −0.04 | +0.47 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jamie Benn L | 12:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.01 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 17:59 | 1 | 3 | +0.41 | +0.02 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 16:10 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.02 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 23:04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 19:44 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:06 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 13:56 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 15:37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 22:12 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 12:55 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 23:08 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 14:07 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 12:23 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 69:35 | −0.58 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Clattenburg C | 14:40 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:27 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.08 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:20 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:23 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 6:41 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 21:47 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 17:06 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| David Tomasek R | 15:35 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 8:29 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 18:49 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 19:28 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:03 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 16:35 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 17:37 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 15:51 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 17:16 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 13:59 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 60:00 | −1.64 |
| Stuart Skinner G | 29:39 | −2.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.