FLA beat NSH 8–3. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 2.8, NSH 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jesper Boqvist scored at 11:31 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Juuse Saros allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:11 |  FLA | A.J. Greer from Carter Verhaeghe, Seth Jones | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:42 | FLA | Evan Rodrigues from Uvis Balinskis, Sam Reinhart | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 6:52 |  NSH | Filip Forsberg from Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P1 10:32 | NSH | Fedor Svechkov from Ozzy Wiesblatt, Tyson Jost | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 11:31 | FLA | Jesper Boqvist from Gustav Forsling, Sam Reinhart | 3–2 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:46 | FLA | Sam Bennett unassisted | 4–2 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 1:24 | FLA | Gustav Forsling from Mackie Samoskevich, Brad Marchand | 5–2 | 81% → 93% |
| P3 2:11 | NSH | Nick BlankenburgPP from Michael Bunting, Erik Haula | 5–3 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 4:52 | FLA | A.J. Greer from Carter Verhaeghe, Uvis Balinskis | 6–3 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 8:33 | FLA | Sam Reinhart from Evan Rodrigues, Aaron Ekblad | 7–3 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 12:49 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from A.J. Greer | 8–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Greer L | 15:42 | 2 | 1 | +1.88 | +0.04 | +1.66 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Gustav Forsling D | 19:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.07 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | −0.05 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Sam Bennett C | 16:55 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.03 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.09 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 18:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.06 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Sam Reinhart C | 17:21 | 1 | 2 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:36 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 11:45 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jack Devine R | 8:41 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 8:41 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 16:19 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 22:28 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 16:08 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 22:26 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 15:03 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 15:57 | −0.35 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 14:48 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 69:27 | +0.52 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 16:32 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 12:35 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 19:35 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.03 | +0.48 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 21:03 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 12:10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 13:40 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 17:46 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 12:59 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:15 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 20:51 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 12:51 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 23:01 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 12:50 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:22 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 20:11 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 13:02 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 20:21 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:48 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 57:54 | −1.80 |
| Juuse Saros G | 32:06 | −3.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.