COL beat CHI 1–0. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.3, CHI 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cale Makar scored at 18:21 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 47% to 72%. Scott Wedgewood saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 18:21 |  COL | Cale Makar from Tristen Nielsen | 1–0 | 47% → 72% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 27:00 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.22 | +0.40 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tristen Nielsen C | 8:25 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 18:52 | +0.16 | +0.36 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Polin R | 8:27 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 16:00 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 19:40 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 15:10 | +0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 7:42 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 14:26 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 22:30 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 22:48 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 12:10 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 15:53 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:34 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:29 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:55 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:35 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 15:29 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +2.09 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vlasic D | 19:07 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 14:55 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:56 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 8:56 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 10:47 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 12:14 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 12:53 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 21:54 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 12:03 | −0.18 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 20:31 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 14:15 | −0.20 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 19:59 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:49 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 21:58 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 18:47 | −0.27 | +0.11 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 20:10 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:23 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 20:25 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 57:32 | +1.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.