Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
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2025-11-23 · UBS Arena

0 – 1Final/SO

NYI beat SEA 1–0 in a shootout. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. Joey Daccord saved 2.4 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
19 – 34
Expected goals
2.1 – 3.9
xG share
NYI 65%
Home-ice start
NYI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

SEA goalNYI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

SEANYI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

SEA
65:00 TOI
GSAx +2.40
+2.40
NYI
David Rittich
65:00 TOI
GSAx +2.09
+2.09
NYI
0 G, 0 A · 19:50 TOI
On-ice +0.11 · Finishing −0.16 · Shootout +1.01
+0.99

Rough nights

NYI
Mathew Barzal
0 G, 0 A · 25:50 TOI
On-ice +0.19 · Finishing −1.03 · Penalties +0.19 · Faceoffs −0.08 · Shootout −0.32
−1.04
SEA
0 G, 0 A · 19:54 TOI
On-ice −0.48 · Finishing −0.24 · Shootout −0.20
−0.94
SEA
0 G, 0 A · 25:48 TOI
On-ice −0.40 · Penalties −0.19
−0.59

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalSEA–NYIWin prob.

Every player

Show both lineups

SEA

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Frederick Gaudreau C16:34+0.81+0.15+0.00−0.00+0.02+0.00−0.02+0.66
Ryker Evans D19:41−0.04−0.03+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Eeli Tolvanen R14:58−0.04+0.21−0.09−0.02+0.02+0.00+0.00−0.16
Ryan Winterton C12:25−0.05−0.04−0.02−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Jamie Oleksiak D14:58−0.06−0.03−0.01−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Tye Kartye L14:22−0.08−0.06+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01−0.00
Shane Wright C12:51−0.20−0.20+0.00−0.00+0.02+0.00−0.02−0.00
Vince Dunn D24:35−0.21−0.20−0.03+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Adam Larsson D23:05−0.26−0.20−0.04−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jani Nyman R10:27−0.26−0.19−0.06−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Ryan Lindgren D17:08−0.35−0.16+0.00−0.01−0.00−0.19+0.00+0.00
Mason Marchment L19:40−0.39−0.40+0.00+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Chandler Stephenson C19:54−0.43+0.03+0.00+0.03−0.00+0.00+0.01−0.49
Jaden Schwartz C18:44−0.43−0.01−0.63−0.00+0.01+0.19+0.01−0.00
Berkly Catton C11:29−0.49+0.00−0.47−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01−0.00
Matty Beniers C19:52−0.54−0.44−0.12−0.01+0.05+0.00−0.01−0.00
Brandon Montour D25:48−0.59−0.40+0.00−0.01+0.01−0.19+0.00+0.00
Jordan Eberle R19:54−0.94−0.48−0.24+0.01−0.03+0.00+0.00−0.20
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Joey Daccord G65:00+2.40

NYI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Kyle Palmieri C19:50+0.99+0.11−0.16+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00+1.01
Bo Horvat C21:20+0.71+0.29−0.66−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.09+1.01
Matthew Schaefer D29:14+0.45+0.56−0.12+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Maksim Shabanov R14:43+0.39+0.28−0.07−0.01−0.01+0.19+0.00−0.00
Ryan Pulock D23:41+0.14+0.19−0.10+0.04+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Maxim Tsyplakov R9:48+0.13+0.13+0.00−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.01−0.00
Anthony Duclair L10:10+0.13+0.16−0.04+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Adam Boqvist D10:16+0.09+0.10+0.00+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Adam Pelech D27:08+0.05+0.03+0.00−0.00+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Scott Mayfield D16:08+0.04+0.10−0.07+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Tony DeAngelo D19:17−0.09−0.06+0.00+0.01−0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00
Emil Heineman L18:49−0.11+0.04−0.12−0.03−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Calum Ritchie C11:54−0.19−0.00−0.19−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.02−0.00
Casey Cizikas C10:56−0.21+0.15−0.35−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Anders Lee C17:56−0.23−0.05−0.18+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Jonathan Drouin L22:35−0.32+0.14−0.45+0.01−0.03+0.00+0.01−0.00
Simon Holmstrom R12:47−0.58+0.01+0.00−0.02+0.01−0.19+0.00−0.38
Mathew Barzal C25:50−1.04+0.19−1.03+0.02−0.01+0.19−0.08−0.32
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
David Rittich G65:00+2.09

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.