UTA beat NYR 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.9, UTA 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nick DeSimone scored at 7:32 of the third, moving UTA’s win probability from 52% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:08 | UTA | JJ Peterka from Nate Schmidt, Jack McBain | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:19 | NYR | Vladislav Gavrikov from Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 8:07 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Vincent Trocheck, Vladislav Gavrikov | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 11:15 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Kailer Yamamoto | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 7:32 | UTA | Nick DeSimone unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 23:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.08 | +0.86 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:37 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.11 | +0.70 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 27:23 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.28 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 15:20 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 14:22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:06 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 9:12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 17:20 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:47 | −0.08 | +0.21 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 8:49 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 16:34 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:43 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Morrow D | 15:22 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 15:30 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:29 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Matthew Robertson D | 14:20 | −0.32 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 15:37 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 16:02 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 68:38 | +0.29 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick DeSimone D | 20:13 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.22 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 15:41 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.12 | +0.39 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 8:55 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 14:17 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:24 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:26 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 13:36 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 9:04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:13 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 17:12 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ian Cole D | 20:58 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:13 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Simashev D | 12:15 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:47 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 14:25 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:15 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 15:41 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:25 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.