SEA beat PIT 3–2 in overtime. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Montour scored at 4:10 of overtime, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Sergei Murashov allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:24 |  SEA | Mason Marchment unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 16:16 |  PIT | Sidney Crosby from Connor Dewar | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 5:56 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Ben Kindel, Sidney Crosby | 1–2 | 53% → 80% |
| P3 12:36 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Mason Marchment, Ryker Evans | 2–2 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 4:10 | SEA | Brandon Montour from Frederick Gaudreau, Ryker Evans | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment L | 18:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.14 | +0.34 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matty Beniers C | 20:00 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.13 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:13 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 10:49 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Fisker Molgaard C | 8:16 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.33 | +0.40 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 22:17 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 18:22 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.30 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 21:06 | −0.15 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 11:41 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 12:40 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 18:56 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 12:00 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:16 | −0.28 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:25 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:02 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 23:33 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 13:46 | −0.51 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 64:10 | +1.30 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.11 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:31 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.29 | +0.28 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 18:24 | +0.31 | +0.18 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joona Koppanen L | 10:31 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:07 | +0.24 | +0.38 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 23:37 | +0.24 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 13:28 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:08 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.24 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:36 | +0.07 | +0.23 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:48 | +0.04 | +0.33 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 12:47 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 17:48 | +0.00 | +0.47 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 19:46 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 14:50 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Samuel Poulin R | 11:50 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:32 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:30 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Murashov G | 64:10 | −1.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.