MTL beat TOR 5–2. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lane Hutson scored at 12:11 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Joseph Woll allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:11 |  MTL | Lane Hutson from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:33 | MTL | Noah Dobson from Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 4:09 | MTL | Noah Dobson from Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovský | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 13:11 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Florian Xhekaj | 0–4 | 97% → 100% |
| P2 17:19 |  TOR | Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Easton Cowan, William Nylander | 1–4 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 14:55 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Morgan Rielly, Matias Maccelli | 2–4 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 17:50 | MTL | Josh AndersonEN from Mike Matheson, Jake Evans | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 19:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.04 | +0.80 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:21 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.00 | +0.37 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 19:34 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 21:04 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 11:11 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:41 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 22:20 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 13:03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 14:29 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 16:29 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:20 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:14 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 14:11 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 13:26 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 22:40 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:08 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 12:37 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:25 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 36:29 | +0.45 |
| Joseph Woll G | 49:47 | −1.10 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson D | 20:44 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.11 | +0.86 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 23:26 | 2 | +0.51 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 18:01 | 2 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 14:39 | 2 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 20:24 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.03 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 17:28 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 15:10 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Davidson C | 13:47 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:27 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 11:24 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Florian Xhekaj L | 9:48 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:08 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 18:21 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 15:23 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 14:14 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 15:48 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 16:51 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:13 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 70:24 | −0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.