DET beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex DeBrincat scored at 1:50 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:18 | CBJ | Adam FantilliPP from Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan | 1–0 | 52% → 65% |
| P2 0:36 | DET | Lucas Raymond unassisted | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 0:54 | CBJ | Miles Wood from Denton Mateychuk, Damon Severson | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P3 8:38 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Ivan Provorov, Cole Sillinger | 3–1 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 10:23 | DET | Ben Chiarot from Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider | 3–2 | 4% → 20% |
| P3 13:25 | DET | Moritz Seider from Emmitt Finnie, Nate Danielson | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 1:50 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from Ben Chiarot, Patrick Kane | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Wood L | 15:07 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.01 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:31 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.18 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 20:39 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 28:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.08 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 10:23 | +0.15 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 10:11 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 14:32 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 11:54 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 9:53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:43 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.23 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 11:00 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 28:09 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 16:16 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 18:08 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:30 | −0.31 | +0.22 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 20:43 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 20:41 | −0.85 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 61:50 | −0.65 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider D | 23:26 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.17 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:42 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.16 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 25:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.26 | +0.69 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:33 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.19 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 8:58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 12:57 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 10:48 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 13:14 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nate Danielson C | 8:43 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 20:39 | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 17:18 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 18:20 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 11:54 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:33 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 17:20 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 23:35 | −0.49 | +0.19 | −0.70 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 16:38 | 1 | −0.73 | +0.17 | −0.87 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 61:50 | +0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.