WSH beat MTL 8–4. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ethen Frank scored on the power play at 2:00 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 48% to 66%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:00 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Dylan Strome | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:47 |  MTL | Brendan GallagherPP from Noah Dobson, Ivan Demidov | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:00 | WSH | Ethen FrankPP from Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 3:38 | WSH | Ethen Frank from Aliaksei Protas, Hendrix Lapierre | 3–1 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 7:53 | MTL | Joe Veleno from Mike Matheson, Brendan Gallagher | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 14:26 | WSH | Jakob Chychrun from John Carlson | 4–2 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 15:04 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Alexandre Carrier, Zachary Bolduc | 4–3 | 13% → 30% |
| P2 17:25 | WSH | Sonny Milano from Ethen Frank, Rasmus Sandin | 5–3 | 71% → 88% |
| P3 5:37 | MTL | Mike Matheson from Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson | 5–4 | 7% → 24% |
| P3 16:03 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Dylan Strome | 6–4 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 17:56 | WSH | Alex OvechkinEN from John Carlson | 7–4 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 18:34 | WSH | Sonny Milano from Ethen Frank, Hendrix Lapierre | 8–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 15:35 | 3 | 1 | +1.64 | +0.05 | +1.55 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sonny Milano L | 7:29 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.02 | +1.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ethen Frank R | 9:53 | 2 | 2 | +1.28 | +0.11 | +1.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:26 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.05 | +0.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 18:59 | 3 | +0.26 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| John Carlson D | 23:56 | 2 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 20:26 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 19:46 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:15 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:38 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 19:51 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 11:30 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 12:02 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:10 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 8:01 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan Leonard R | 15:29 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 17:57 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Justin Sourdif C | 15:47 | −0.67 | +0.06 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | −0.94 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:57 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.65 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 22:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.04 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Joe Veleno C | 17:00 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.07 | +0.48 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.04 | +0.46 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 17:16 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 15:07 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Davidson C | 10:45 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 16:18 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 26:15 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:34 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:19 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 12:19 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 12:41 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:44 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 12:27 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Joshua Roy R | 10:54 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 15:27 | −0.51 | +0.04 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:25 | 1 | −0.78 | +0.03 | −0.79 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 69:23 | −1.43 |
| Samuel Montembeault G | 47:40 | −1.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.