CBJ beat TOR 3–2 in overtime. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Adam Fantilli scored at 4:21 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:17 |  CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 12:01 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Dmitri Voronkov, Zach Werenski | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 14:12 | TOR | Dakota Mermis from John Tavares | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 3:33 | TOR | John Tavares from Easton Cowan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| OT 4:21 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Zach Werenski | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fantilli C | 23:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.47 | +0.12 | +1.37 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 17:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.12 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:34 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 20:33 | +0.14 | +0.35 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:34 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 10:46 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 10:29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 15:11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 30:03 | 3 | −0.05 | +0.59 | −0.66 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luca Del Bel Belluz C | 10:33 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 18:43 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 28:53 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 19:07 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 21:01 | −0.23 | +0.37 | −0.50 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 12:45 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 14:43 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:59 | −0.55 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 64:21 | +0.50 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Mermis D | 13:59 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.91 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 21:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.07 | +0.28 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Dakota Joshua C | 9:25 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 13:47 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:36 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 17:09 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 16:27 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob Quillan C | 9:37 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 19:55 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 15:46 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 15:03 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:37 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 25:59 | −0.21 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 20:06 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.55 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:53 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 18:00 | −0.39 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:15 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| William Nylander R | 22:39 | −0.63 | +0.02 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 64:21 | +0.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.