ANA beat BOS 4–3. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ian Moore scored at 16:25 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 51% to 91%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:29 |  ANA | Jansen Harkins from Ross Johnston, Nikita Nesterenko | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:29 | ANA | Radko Gudas from Mason McTavish, Beckett Sennecke | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 14:58 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from Hampus Lindholm, Pavel Zacha | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P2 13:47 | ANA | Ryan StromePP from Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier | 1–3 | 76% → 90% |
| P2 18:27 | BOS | Michael Eyssimont from Nikita Zadorov | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 7:39 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from David Pastrnak, Hampus Lindholm | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 16:25 | ANA | Ian Moore from Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry | 3–4 | 51% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:23 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.02 | +1.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:51 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.02 | +0.52 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:01 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 14:38 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 17:00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 20:09 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 19:48 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 15:48 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 21:10 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 10:25 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matěj Blümel R | 12:57 | −0.19 | +0.12 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:02 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.18 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 18:46 | −0.27 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:50 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 15:57 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:45 | −0.51 | +0.07 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 21:33 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.10 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 58:32 | −0.56 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radko Gudas D | 15:11 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.02 | +0.88 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 14:12 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.06 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 8:28 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.07 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 17:59 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.11 | +0.35 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 19:26 | +0.20 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:12 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 8:00 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 19:12 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:11 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:44 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:17 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 20:29 | −0.17 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 19:04 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:26 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 14:22 | −0.31 | +0.11 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 17:27 | 2 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 17:55 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:33 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 69:56 | +0.77 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.