MIN beat CAR 4–3 in a shootout. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jackson Blake scored on the power play at 18:54 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 5% to 50%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:54 |  MIN | Brock Faber from Mats Zuccarello, Danila Yurov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:46 | MIN | Matt BoldySH unassisted | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 14:03 |  CAR | Jackson Blake from Sean Walker, Logan Stankoven | 1–2 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 0:15 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Kirill Kaprizov, Danila Yurov | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 6:34 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis | 2–3 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 18:54 | CAR | Jackson BlakePP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Blake R | 20:54 | 2 | +1.76 | +0.46 | +1.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:27 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.04 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:56 | +0.23 | +0.33 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 25:12 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.28 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:52 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:11 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 20:31 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 14:39 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:46 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:33 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 13:33 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 14:51 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:01 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 21:18 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.32 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 18:44 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.23 | −0.92 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 16:36 | −0.54 | +0.12 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 73:53 | −1.09 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy L | 20:32 | 1 | +1.73 | −0.05 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Brock Faber D | 27:04 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.26 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 12:00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 12:29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:25 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:59 | 1 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Liam Ohgren L | 12:33 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:43 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 13:46 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 12:46 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 16:31 | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:17 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 20:20 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:04 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 18:09 | −0.36 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 14:20 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:49 | −0.53 | −0.28 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:23 | 1 | −0.83 | −0.36 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 65:00 | +2.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.