SJS beat UTA 3–2 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Macklin Celebrini scored on the power play at 2:52 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 54% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:47 |  SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Will Smith, Philipp Kurashev | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:58 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Collin Graf | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P3 9:25 | UTA | JJ Peterka from Lawson Crouse, Logan Cooley | 1–2 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 17:09 | UTA | JJ Peterka from Nate Schmidt | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 2:52 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from William Eklund, Will Smith | 2–3 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 13:57 | 2 | +1.39 | −0.03 | +1.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 13:06 | +0.21 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:55 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 12:06 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:26 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jack McBain C | 11:58 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 16:37 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 9:20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:27 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 18:23 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 17:56 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 28:28 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 18:31 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 20:38 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:28 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 11:34 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:14 | −0.29 | +0.10 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 19:45 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 62:52 | −0.64 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini C | 19:41 | 3 | +2.07 | −0.10 | +2.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Will Smith C | 17:23 | 2 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:48 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:54 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:04 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 22:43 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 15:57 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 16:52 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:45 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:36 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 15:36 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 13:38 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 18:19 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:53 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 10:44 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 16:56 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:35 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 21:28 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.09 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 62:52 | +0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.