CHI beat CGY 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 2.0, CHI 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Connor Bedard scored at 4:57 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Dustin Wolf allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:05 | CHI | Ryan Donato from Louis Crevier, Oliver Moore | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 15:11 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Sam Rinzel | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 19:32 |  CGY | Matt CoronatoPP from Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson | 1–2 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 3:02 | CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Mikael Backlund, Adam Klapka | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 4:57 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Ryan Greene, Andre Burakovsky | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 13:04 | CHI | Oliver Moore from Frank Nazar | 2–4 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 19:19 | CHI | Connor BedardEN unassisted | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Coronato R | 18:51 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.08 | +0.43 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sam Morton C | 11:05 | +0.13 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 15:17 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 15:00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 18:08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 12:30 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 21:33 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 14:48 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:27 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 11:04 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:31 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 19:07 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 14:12 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 13:48 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 12:44 | −0.47 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 66:59 | −1.89 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard C | 20:01 | 3 | +1.21 | +0.07 | +1.29 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Oliver Moore C | 13:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.03 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Donato C | 17:04 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Ryan Greene C | 19:48 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 22:41 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 14:16 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 10:44 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 20:37 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 15:04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 13:37 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 16:29 | −0.08 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 14:46 | −0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 17:46 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 19:24 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Dach C | 14:34 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 9:35 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 20:24 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 60:00 | −0.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.