DET beat SEA 4–2. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Emmitt Finnie scored on the power play at 10:56 of the second, moving DET’s win probability from 54% to 74%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:02 | SEA | Jordan EberlePP from Matty Beniers, Eeli Tolvanen | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 1:19 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 2:04 | DET | Nate Danielson from Mason Appleton, Axel Sandin-Pellikka | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:26 | SEA | Ryker Evans from Eeli Tolvanen, Shane Wright | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:56 | DET | Emmitt FinniePP from Nate Danielson, Andrew Copp | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 19:30 | DET | Dylan LarkinEN from Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryker Evans D | 14:03 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.02 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:32 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.13 | +0.69 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 11:35 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:35 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 11:19 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 13:26 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 19:44 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Berkly Catton C | 13:05 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 21:26 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 21:08 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 17:55 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:34 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 21:38 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 14:17 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:35 | 2 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:52 | −0.53 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Nyman R | 9:30 | −0.54 | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 24:51 | −0.68 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 71:00 | −0.30 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.24 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Emmitt Finnie C | 11:36 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nate Danielson C | 11:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.04 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 10:35 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:13 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.25 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 12:05 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 14:28 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 14:56 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 15:44 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:24 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.33 | −0.36 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 23:26 | +0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 22:50 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 13:41 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 15:56 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 20:55 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 13:15 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:49 | −0.10 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 12:35 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.21 | −0.58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 60:00 | +0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.