ANA beat UTA 3–2 in overtime. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Olen Zellweger scored at 1:50 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:52 | ANA | Jackson LaCombe from Ryan Strome, Alex Killorn | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 18:14 |  UTA | Dylan Guenther from Nate Schmidt, John Marino | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 9:19 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Mikhail Sergachev, Nick Schmaltz | 2–1 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 19:55 | ANA | Troy TerryPP from Chris Kreider, Cutter Gauthier | 2–2 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 1:50 | ANA | Olen Zellweger from Beckett Sennecke, Alex Killorn | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley C | 19:21 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:09 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.19 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:24 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 16:51 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:05 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:35 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:43 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 22:52 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 12:34 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:52 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Simashev D | 14:13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:40 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack McBain C | 14:57 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 16:45 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:48 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 20:15 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:11 | −0.33 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:01 | −0.68 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 71:32 | −0.38 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:29 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.29 | +0.49 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 21:19 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.10 | +0.50 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 23:12 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.08 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 14:48 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 17:12 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 19:51 | +0.08 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 13:07 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:21 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 12:52 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 19:56 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 11:25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 11:13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 13:21 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:16 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 12:11 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 12:26 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 22:40 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 20:03 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.25 | −0.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 72:10 | −0.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.