CBJ beat MTL 4–3 in a shootout. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Lane Hutson scored on the power play at 18:41 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 6% to 50%. Jakub Dobes allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:58 |  CBJ | Zach Werenski from Mathieu Olivier, Charlie Coyle | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 4:47 | MTL | Oliver Kapanen from Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:47 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:32 | CBJ | Dmitri VoronkovPP from Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski | 1–3 | 79% → 89% |
| P3 8:28 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Lane Hutson, Jake Evans | 2–3 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 18:41 | MTL | Lane HutsonPP from Noah Dobson, Cole Caufield | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Hutson D | 26:51 | 1 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.43 | +0.68 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cole Caufield R | 21:45 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.55 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 17:30 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 16:11 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.06 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 17:19 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:03 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joshua Roy R | 11:30 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:37 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:27 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 30:26 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:14 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:47 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 26:45 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.31 | −0.56 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:12 | −0.26 | +0.37 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.32 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 17:25 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.15 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Jared Davidson C | 10:27 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:05 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 19:24 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.20 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 74:12 | −2.44 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 23:19 | 2 | +0.80 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.01 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 31:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.36 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 16:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.34 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Damon Severson D | 19:21 | +0.21 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 22:34 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.32 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 14:20 | +0.03 | −0.37 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 12:01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:59 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 12:57 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 19:56 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:15 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 15:23 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 13:03 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 19:05 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 12:24 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:36 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.56 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:25 | −0.39 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 27:16 | −0.47 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 65:00 | +0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.