CAR beat BOS 3–1. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Staal scored at 8:25 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Pyotr Kochetkov saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:25 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Joel Nystrom, William Carrier | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 13:34 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from Taylor Hall, Sean Walker | 2–0 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 17:27 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Joel Nystrom | 3–0 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:50 |  BOS | Riley TuftePP from Michael Eyssimont, Henri Jokiharju | 3–1 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 15:39 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.15 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.39 | −0.02 | |
| Joel Nystrom D | 20:01 | 2 | +0.62 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 13:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.06 | +0.28 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:13 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.07 | +0.37 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| William Carrier L | 11:32 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 19:45 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.17 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:45 | +0.08 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 13:35 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:40 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 12:39 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 17:34 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:48 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 12:09 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:53 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 13:29 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 19:35 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:13 | −0.25 | +0.20 | −0.27 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 14:57 | −0.35 | +0.14 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 60:00 | +1.77 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:43 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.04 | ||
| Riley Tufte L | 15:13 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.24 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 15:58 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.25 | +0.11 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 20:32 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 11:09 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 13:57 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 13:30 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 18:00 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:48 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 12:31 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 20:06 | −0.18 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:19 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matěj Blümel R | 13:10 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 14:47 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 20:58 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:58 | −0.37 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 15:20 | −0.45 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 21:01 | −0.56 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | +0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.