CHI beat TOR 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (TOR 3.5, CHI 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Colton Dach scored at 15:35 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Spencer Knight saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:05 | CHI | Ryan Greene from Artyom Levshunov, Wyatt Kaiser | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 19:12 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from John Tavares | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 9:37 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, William Nylander | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 5:12 | CHI | Teuvo Teravainen from Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 15:35 | CHI | Colton Dach from Louis Crevier, Ilya Mikheyev | 2–3 | 51% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:21 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.11 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 12:17 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 18:22 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.23 | +0.49 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 19:28 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:16 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 8:20 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 24:55 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 10:12 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:55 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:55 | −0.13 | +0.21 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:12 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 10:35 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 20:05 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.27 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 26:41 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philippe Myers D | 8:47 | −0.28 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 21:41 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 19:45 | −0.51 | +0.20 | −0.73 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 16:37 | −0.68 | +0.08 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.39 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 58:36 | +0.02 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Dach C | 9:40 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.03 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 20:54 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.24 | +0.50 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 21:34 | +0.60 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 16:32 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.18 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:13 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Louis Crevier D | 16:34 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.20 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Landon Slaggert L | 8:24 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 13:00 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 8:41 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 21:22 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 20:06 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 10:41 | −0.13 | +0.19 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 18:54 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 18:53 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 16:28 | −0.25 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 21:34 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 13:02 | −0.53 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 20:28 | −0.72 | +0.00 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 60:00 | +1.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.