BUF beat DET 5–4 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mattias Samuelsson scored at 1:05 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%. John Gibson allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:23 |  DET | Patrick Kane from Ben Chiarot | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 10:52 | BUF | Alex Tuch unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 3:52 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from Lucas Raymond | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:56 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 8:50 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider | 1–4 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 17:58 | BUF | Josh Doan from Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 4:25 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Josh Doan, Colten Ellis | 3–4 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 9:28 | BUF | Ryan McLeodSH unassisted | 4–4 | 17% → 47% |
| OT 1:05 | BUF | Mattias Samuelsson from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McLeod C | 19:20 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.14 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Josh Doan R | 16:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.14 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:20 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:31 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.04 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.11 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:05 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 10:59 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 17:35 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 12:58 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 20:28 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isak Rosen R | 14:32 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:42 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 8:14 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:28 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 15:14 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:01 | −0.40 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:22 | −0.44 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.08 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 18:51 | −0.54 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 61:02 | −0.84 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:04 | 2 | +1.22 | +0.10 | +1.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:53 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.23 | +0.46 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 17:06 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.25 | +0.59 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 16:47 | 3 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 11:25 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 24:39 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.30 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 22:59 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 14:26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 13:36 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Danielson C | 12:12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:56 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 12:20 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 15:47 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 15:44 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:32 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 9:25 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 15:27 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 16:05 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 60:30 | −1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.