PHI beat STL 6–5 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 2.7, STL 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Owen Tippett scored at 10:29 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 17% to 48%. Jordan Binnington allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:19 |  STL | Jordan Kyrou unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:18 | PHI | Trevor Zegras from Christian Dvorak, Travis Sanheim | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 9:42 | STL | Jimmy Snuggerud from Robert Thomas | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 6:54 | STL | Justin Faulk from Cam Fowler, Oskar Sundqvist | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:17 | PHI | Christian Dvorak from Owen Tippett, Emil Andrae | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 18:24 | PHI | Trevor Zegras from Emil Andrae, Owen Tippett | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 0:40 | STL | Dylan Holloway from Jordan Kyrou, Cam Fowler | 3–4 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 4:56 | STL | Robert Thomas from Jimmy Snuggerud | 3–5 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 7:53 | PHI | Christian Dvorak from Owen Tippett | 4–5 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 10:29 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Trevor Zegras, Noah Juulsen | 5–5 | 17% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras C | 20:02 | 2 | 1 | +2.05 | +0.21 | +1.14 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 |
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:14 | 2 | 1 | +1.41 | +0.25 | +1.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 |
| Owen Tippett R | 15:57 | 1 | 3 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Emil Andrae D | 18:00 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:45 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Juulsen D | 16:07 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:41 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rodrigo Abols C | 11:47 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 22:40 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 17:50 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 9:34 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 14:07 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 21:23 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 20:46 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 17:09 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 19:23 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:34 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 65:00 | −1.88 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk D | 24:28 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.13 | +0.89 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.12 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.13 | +0.74 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.32 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 17:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.03 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.29 |
| Dylan Holloway L | 20:26 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.19 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.33 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 26:57 | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:50 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:12 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 12:46 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:52 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Hunter Skinner D | 10:45 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 12:40 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:00 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:13 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 10:59 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 15:15 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:40 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:23 | 2 | −0.54 | −0.18 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 65:00 | −2.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.