NYI beat VGK 4–3 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored short-handed at 3:02 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 46% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:03 | NYI | Emil Heineman from Bo Horvat, Tony DeAngelo | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:59 | NYI | Matthew SchaeferPP from Jonathan Drouin, Bo Horvat | 2–0 | 66% → 79% |
| P2 18:56 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Keegan Kolesar | 2–1 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 8:23 | VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Jeremy Lauzon, Jack Eichel | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 10:45 | VGK | Reilly Smith from Brandon Saad, Brett Howden | 2–3 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 17:23 | NYI | Mathew BarzalPP from Matthew Schaefer, Jonathan Drouin | 3–3 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 3:02 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel PageauSH unassisted | 4–3 | 46% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Barzal C | 24:27 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.17 | +0.53 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:57 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.18 | +0.81 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 21:10 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.26 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 9:08 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 20:37 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:50 | +0.03 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 19:09 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 6:47 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 18:03 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.37 | +0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 7:30 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 11:15 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 14:11 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 25:59 | 1 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.36 | +0.26 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 15:38 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calum Ritchie C | 9:15 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:47 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 19:20 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 22:19 | 2 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −0.21 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 61:46 | +0.87 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:00 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.37 | +0.64 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 22:19 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.48 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 13:50 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:21 | +0.29 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:07 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brett Howden C | 13:35 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 12:46 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:54 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 20:28 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 11:21 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 20:59 | −0.08 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:19 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 6:26 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 16:45 | −0.28 | +0.20 | −0.37 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 19:10 | −0.30 | +0.26 | −0.28 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:04 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 24:35 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.13 | −0.38 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:06 | −0.41 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 62:31 | −0.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.