DET beat ANA 6–3. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Axel Sandin-Pellikka scored at 15:33 of the second, moving DET’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Lukas Dostal allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:57 | DET | Moritz SeiderPP from Lucas Raymond, Patrick Kane | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 7:35 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Beckett Sennecke, Jacob Trouba | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:42 | DET | Michael Rasmussen from Andrew Copp, Jonatan Berggren | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 14:54 | ANA | Chris Kreider from Jackson LaCombe, Drew Helleson | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 15:33 | DET | Axel Sandin-Pellikka from Michael Rasmussen, Jonatan Berggren | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 0:50 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Moritz Seider, Patrick Kane | 2–4 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 4:33 | ANA | Mikael Granlund from Ian Moore, Ryan Strome | 3–4 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 5:06 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat | 3–5 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 17:59 | DET | Alex DeBrincatEN from Dylan Larkin | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 15:45 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.02 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 16:21 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.04 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 16:09 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.06 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 23:56 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 19:39 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 9:48 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 13:50 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 17:27 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:50 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 10:11 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 13:47 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 9:33 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 23:21 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 16:30 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 16:07 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 10:14 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.03 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:13 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:19 | −0.49 | +0.05 | −0.55 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:21 | −1.65 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider D | 25:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.05 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 13:43 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.93 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.06 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:26 | 2 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.09 | +0.51 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Mason Appleton C | 12:08 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 26:56 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 12:36 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Nate Danielson C | 11:13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 14:40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:25 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 13:02 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:20 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 12:28 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 12:47 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 23:25 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 14:23 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 11:05 | 2 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 20:00 | +0.12 |
| John Gibson G | 40:00 | −0.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.