UTA beat BUF 5–2. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lawson Crouse scored at 3:22 of the third, moving UTA’s win probability from 52% to 79%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:33 | BUF | Isak Rosen from Jack Quinn, Bowen Byram | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 6:42 | BUF | Isak Rosen from Noah Ostlund | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 10:42 | UTA | Nick DeSimone from Michael Carcone, Nate Schmidt | 2–1 | 15% → 31% |
| P3 0:52 | UTA | JJ Peterka from John Marino, Mikhail Sergachev | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 3:22 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from JJ Peterka, Jack McBain | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 10:09 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller | 2–4 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 19:33 | UTA | Clayton KellerEN from Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak Rosen R | 15:56 | 2 | +1.76 | −0.03 | +1.59 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 15:36 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:30 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 19:31 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:31 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:03 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:46 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 18:57 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:07 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 16:18 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:19 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Owen Power D | 22:10 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 24:33 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 13:34 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 18:35 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Ostlund C | 16:59 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:22 | −0.46 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 8:47 | −0.79 | −0.20 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 69:44 | −0.81 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.17 | +0.70 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Nick DeSimone D | 16:32 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.04 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 13:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.05 | +0.68 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:43 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.17 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 15:41 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:47 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 21:53 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:15 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 11:51 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Simashev D | 8:15 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 11:39 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 21:52 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 26:24 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:27 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:19 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 13:53 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.62 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 20:48 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.16 | −0.73 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.