SJS beat MIN 2–1 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Collin Graf scored at 2:41 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Yaroslav Askarov saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:02 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Mats Zuccarello, Zeev Buium | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P3 11:57 | SJS | Will SmithPP from Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli | 1–1 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 2:41 | SJS | Collin Graf from Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickinson | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Graf R | 13:53 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Smith C | 18:31 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.29 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:25 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 18:00 | +0.07 | +0.21 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 16:01 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 14:54 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:15 | +0.02 | +0.31 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 19:17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 18:32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 19:03 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 13:54 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:51 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:00 | −0.20 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 27:40 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:02 | −0.31 | +0.17 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:10 | −0.34 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 22:56 | −0.62 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 72:01 | +2.03 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy L | 23:15 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:33 | +0.45 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 11:27 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:00 | +0.15 | +0.23 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:03 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 11:27 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:47 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:56 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 11:28 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 11:51 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:52 | −0.10 | +0.40 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 9:40 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 9:47 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 24:55 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:17 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.29 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 17:59 | −0.41 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 25:21 | −0.54 | −0.27 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 26:08 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.15 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 62:41 | −0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.