EDM beat CBJ 5–4 in overtime. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jack Roslovic scored at 0:56 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jet Greaves allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:42 | CBJ | Ivan Provorov from Damon Severson, Adam Fantilli | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:28 |  EDM | Jake Walman from Vasily Podkolzin, Jack Roslovic | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 1:39 | CBJ | Sean Monahan from Kent Johnson, Boone Jenner | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 18:02 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Dante Fabbro, Zach Werenski | 3–1 | 72% → 88% |
| P3 0:58 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Mattias Ekholm | 3–2 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 4:19 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Kirill Marchenko | 4–2 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 13:39 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Evan Bouchard | 4–3 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 19:02 | EDM | Jake WalmanSH unassisted | 4–4 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 0:56 | EDM | Jack Roslovic from Jake Walman | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:31 | 1 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.12 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.08 |
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:26 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.05 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 18:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.04 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Sean Monahan C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.20 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 15:30 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 10:24 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 15:31 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 9:19 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 12:07 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 19:41 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Del Bel Belluz C | 8:17 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:42 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 18:47 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 12:37 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 13:18 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:49 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 27:39 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:16 | −0.45 | −0.17 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:56 | −2.28 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Walman D | 22:13 | 2 | 1 | +1.58 | −0.02 | +1.63 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:32 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.22 | +1.20 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:59 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 21:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.04 | +0.48 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 9:59 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 19:51 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 20:39 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Philp C | 9:21 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:52 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:51 | −0.16 | +0.13 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 16:23 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 14:16 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 16:58 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:25 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 11:21 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:00 | −0.41 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:00 | −0.43 | −0.11 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 70:46 | −2.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.