COL beat VAN 5–4 in overtime. COL lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gavin Brindley scored at 1:08 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:41 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:10 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Victor Olofsson, Valeri Nichushkin | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P1 11:47 |  VAN | Linus Karlsson from Filip Hronek, Evander Kane | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 1:44 | VAN | Kiefer Sherwood unassisted | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P3 0:28 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Brent Burns, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 7:26 | VAN | Drew O'ConnorSH unassisted | 3–3 | 21% → 51% |
| P3 9:47 | COL | Artturi LehkonenPP from Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon | 4–3 | 50% → 80% |
| P3 16:59 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes | 4–4 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 1:08 | COL | Gavin Brindley from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:03 | 2 | 3 | +1.65 | +0.14 | +1.39 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:40 | 2 | +1.28 | −0.03 | +1.30 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gavin Brindley C | 11:01 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.09 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 27:34 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 20:24 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 24:59 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 15:10 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Ahcan D | 11:16 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 7:19 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 16:28 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 14:31 | −0.12 | +0.21 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:57 | −0.13 | +0.22 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 19:18 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:37 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:48 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 18:22 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 19:49 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 10:59 | −0.63 | −0.10 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 61:08 | −0.53 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:39 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.14 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:36 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 14:37 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.68 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Linus Karlsson C | 9:47 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.03 | +0.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 23:39 | +0.37 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.39 | +0.03 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:56 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.25 | −0.49 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 10:12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:26 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 9:55 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:03 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 17:27 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Willander D | 11:41 | −0.15 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 11:04 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 24:14 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arshdeep Bains L | 9:14 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 14:52 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 21:06 | −0.35 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:53 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.55 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 80:24 | −1.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.