CAR beat TOR 5–4. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Logan Stankoven scored at 12:13 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 49% to 83%. Brandon Bussi allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:00 |  TOR | William Nylander from Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:34 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, K'Andre Miller | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 14:31 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Andrei Svechnikov, Alexander Nikishin | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:31 | TOR | John Tavares from Bobby McMann, Nicholas Robertson | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 19:01 | TOR | William NylanderPP from John Tavares, Auston Matthews | 2–3 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 11:03 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Jake McCabe, Matthew Knies | 2–4 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 16:51 | CAR | Sean Walker from William Carrier | 3–4 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 3:20 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven | 4–4 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 12:13 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from K'Andre Miller, Nikolaj Ehlers | 5–4 | 49% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Walker D | 26:43 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.27 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:26 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.36 | +0.48 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.31 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:59 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.35 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 12:59 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.13 | +0.30 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 8:25 | +0.34 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 15:23 | +0.20 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 25:33 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.63 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Nystrom D | 19:29 | +0.13 | +0.22 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:51 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.39 | −0.05 | ||
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 7:15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:52 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 19:08 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:59 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.42 | −0.54 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 15:04 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:25 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:30 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.41 | −0.79 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 15:32 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.29 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | −1.94 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 21:19 | 2 | +0.82 | −0.34 | +1.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.02 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Simon Benoit D | 17:56 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 22:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.31 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Bobby McMann C | 14:51 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:30 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:16 | −0.10 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 10:00 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:13 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:04 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 15:08 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 8:51 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:33 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 10:37 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:54 | −0.26 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:31 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 21:04 | 2 | −0.44 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 23:22 | 1 | −0.86 | −0.49 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 78:11 | +0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.