ANA beat VGK 4–3 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jacob Trouba scored at 4:28 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Petr Mrazek saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:47 | VGK | Brett Howden from William Karlsson, Noah Hanifin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:49 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Olen Zellweger, Jacob Trouba | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 10:39 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Troy Terry | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 16:50 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Olen Zellweger | 3–1 | 71% → 88% |
| P3 3:56 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Jack Eichel | 3–2 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 14:53 | VGK | Kaedan Korczak from Ivan Barbashev, Mitch Marner | 3–3 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 4:28 | ANA | Jacob Trouba from Leo Carlsson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 22:46 | 2 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.12 | +1.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 |
| Frank Vatrano R | 9:22 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.10 | +0.82 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 27:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.62 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 16:45 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 12:01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:52 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 21:12 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 8:36 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 13:13 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:01 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 15:04 | −0.26 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 22:20 | −0.30 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 14:18 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 19:46 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:17 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 17:13 | −0.50 | −0.16 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 24:20 | 2 | −0.66 | −0.19 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 27:04 | −0.79 | −0.26 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 64:28 | +1.64 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaedan Korczak D | 18:37 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.20 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 21:00 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.18 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 17:07 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 25:43 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.33 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 26:07 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.46 | −0.15 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:05 | +0.20 | +0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:45 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 5:03 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 18:54 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 26:25 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 24:19 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 13:44 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:56 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 16:40 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:54 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 7:03 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 9:39 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:58 | −0.93 | +0.19 | −1.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 74:01 | −1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.