SEA beat STL 4–3 in overtime. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shane Wright scored at 1:57 of overtime, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Joel Hofer allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:30 |  STL | Dylan Holloway unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:40 | STL | Dalibor DvorskyPP from Cam Fowler, Pavel Buchnevich | 0–2 | 71% → 83% |
| P2 8:28 | SEA | Ryker Evans from Eeli Tolvanen, Tye Kartye | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 15:25 | SEA | Eeli TolvanenPP from Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 5:10 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Philip Broberg, Robert Thomas | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 19:58 | SEA | Chandler StephensonPP from Matty Beniers, Brandon Montour | 3–3 | 2% → 48% |
| OT 1:57 | SEA | Shane Wright from Eeli Tolvanen, Ryker Evans | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryker Evans D | 17:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.09 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 21:48 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.12 | +0.84 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Shane Wright C | 12:41 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.06 | +0.67 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:04 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 20:54 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:48 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 11:01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 16:47 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 10:54 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 16:16 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:14 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 10:22 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Berkly Catton C | 10:05 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 16:40 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 24:13 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 19:28 | −0.34 | −0.22 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 21:08 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 71:17 | −1.01 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Holloway L | 19:47 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.07 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.08 | +0.45 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 12:35 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.09 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:17 | +0.20 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 16:05 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 25:32 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.26 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 14:18 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 20:42 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:32 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 11:47 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 13:36 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:41 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 11:27 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:38 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:35 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:05 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 12:21 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 61:57 | −1.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.