DAL beat NSH 5–4. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Steel scored at 10:20 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 48% to 80%. Justus Annunen allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:26 |  DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Miro Heiskanen, Ilya Lyubushkin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:46 |  NSH | Luke Evangelista from Spencer Stastney, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 0:13 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 4:43 | NSH | Nicolas Hague from Nick Blankenburg, Erik Haula | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 5:10 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan O'Reilly, Nicolas Hague | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 2:20 | DAL | Justin Hryckowian from Oskar Bäck, Mavrik Bourque | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 5:11 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Nick Blankenburg, Matthew Wood | 3–4 | 53% → 80% |
| P3 9:33 | DAL | Adam Erne from Colin Blackwell, Alexander Petrovic | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 10:20 | DAL | Sam Steel from Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen | 5–4 | 48% → 80% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Steel C | 19:12 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 12:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Erne L | 10:55 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 16:13 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Hryckowian C | 13:08 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.02 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 11:10 | +0.27 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:41 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Petrovic D | 11:51 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 11:45 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 24:45 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 14:00 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 22:02 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 12:48 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:29 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 14:57 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 10:42 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:44 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 22:42 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:00 | −1.95 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:58 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.04 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 22:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.08 | +0.91 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Luke Evangelista R | 16:27 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:45 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.06 | +0.67 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 10:55 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:09 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 15:01 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:48 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 22:19 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 14:02 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 13:40 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 15:17 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 20:32 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 10:49 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 11:47 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:24 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.55 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 9:40 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 19:52 | −0.40 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 66:50 | −2.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.