NJD beat MTL 4–3 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jesper Bratt scored at 1:33 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jakub Dobes allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:53 |  NJD | Cody Glass unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 2:59 |  MTL | Kirby Dach from Noah Dobson, Mike Matheson | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 8:05 | NJD | Ondrej Palat from Jack Hughes, Simon Nemec | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 0:59 | MTL | Jake Evans from Josh Anderson, Noah Dobson | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 10:33 | MTL | Oliver Kapanen from Alex Newhook | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 18:53 | NJD | Timo MeierPP from Dawson Mercer, Jack Hughes | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 1:33 | NJD | Jesper Bratt unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Evans C | 18:01 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.21 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 12:11 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.08 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 13:23 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:09 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 27:16 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 17:56 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 20:59 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 10:54 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 26:52 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:56 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 15:17 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 12:44 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:01 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 11:24 | −0.33 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 16:08 | −0.36 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:08 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:35 | −0.46 | −0.03 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 71:27 | −1.20 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:24 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cody Glass C | 13:30 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 22:30 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.05 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 16:50 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.02 | +0.60 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 10:49 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 11:55 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:30 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 9:00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 13:10 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:51 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 28:56 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 14:41 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 15:29 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:51 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 19:44 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 22:53 | −0.28 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 8:29 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 24:27 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 69:41 | −0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.