SJS beat SEA 6–1. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ethan Cardwell scored at 18:42 of the first, moving SJS’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Joey Daccord allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:08 |  SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Tyler Toffoli, John Klingberg | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 16:30 | SEA | Ryan Winterton from Ryan Lindgren, Shane Wright | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 18:42 | SJS | Ethan Cardwell from Alexander Wennberg, Jeff Skinner | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 11:21 | SJS | John KlingbergPP from Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini | 3–1 | 70% → 85% |
| P3 1:02 | SJS | Will Smith from Mario Ferraro, Macklin Celebrini | 4–1 | 90% → 98% |
| P3 3:24 | SJS | Ty DellandreaSH from Collin Graf | 5–1 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 3:54 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from Shakir Mukhamadullin | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Klingberg D | 16:14 | 1 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.05 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Will Smith C | 14:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 18:34 | 1 | 2 | +0.61 | +0.02 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Ethan Cardwell R | 12:14 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 18:58 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 12:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 15:49 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:50 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 16:27 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:36 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 18:37 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 17:18 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:41 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 16:55 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 10:30 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 16:35 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:17 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 13:01 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 60:00 | +2.48 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Winterton C | 11:37 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.07 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 21:15 | +0.22 | −0.08 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.58 | +0.07 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:44 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 17:05 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 17:52 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:55 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 14:08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 15:57 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 16:39 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 21:28 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 22:47 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 14:53 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 16:51 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 11:50 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:07 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 21:17 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jani Nyman R | 9:27 | −0.68 | +0.01 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 16:36 | −0.56 |
| Joey Daccord G | 43:14 | −3.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.