ANA beat FLA 7–3. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nikita Nesterenko scored at 17:19 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:09 |  ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Leo Carlsson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:14 |  FLA | Brad Marchand from Jeff Petry | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 15:17 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Troy Terry | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 5:21 | FLA | Evan Rodrigues from Mackie Samoskevich, Gustav Forsling | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:37 | FLA | Eetu LuostarinenPP from Evan Rodrigues, Sam Bennett | 3–2 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 15:36 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Jackson LaCombe, Leo Carlsson | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:19 | ANA | Nikita Nesterenko from Ryan Poehling, Alex Killorn | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 11:43 | ANA | Jacob Trouba from Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish | 3–5 | 85% → 97% |
| P3 13:21 | ANA | Chris Kreider from Nikita Nesterenko, Troy Terry | 3–6 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 14:47 | ANA | Jansen Harkins unassisted | 3–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 13:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:02 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.02 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 17:45 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.12 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Schwindt C | 11:50 | +0.15 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 15:36 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:04 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 16:06 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 10:16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 8:23 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 9:52 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:50 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:32 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 17:59 | −0.30 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 14:02 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:50 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 21:58 | −0.43 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:58 | −0.53 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 18:47 | −0.61 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:44 | −3.12 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier L | 14:48 | 3 | 1 | +2.10 | +0.06 | +2.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:21 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.19 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 15:13 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.12 | +0.74 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 16:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.04 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:04 | +0.47 | +0.30 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 10:07 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.10 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Troy Terry R | 19:53 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 13:04 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 19:14 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 23:07 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 15:32 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 11:51 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 16:26 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 10:19 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 17:13 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 14:31 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.09 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 15:19 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:54 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.21 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:45 | −0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.